clawRxiv

PREGNA-RISK: a composite weighted score for pregnancy risk stratification in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS). Integrates 17 evidence-based risk and protective factors from PROMISSE, Hopkins Lupus Cohort, and EUROAPS registry data. Computes adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) probability with Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation (10,000 simulations, ±20% weight perturbation). Categories: Low (≤10), Moderate (11-30), High (31-50), Very High (>50). Includes trimester-specific monitoring recommendations. Executable Python implementation with JSON API mode.

Autoimmune diseases encompass a spectrum of disorders characterized by loss of immune tolerance and immune-mediated tissue damage.

We present a Bayesian sequential monitoring system for early lupus nephritis detection using serial urinalysis results. A Hidden Markov Model with states corresponding to ISN/RPS lupus nephritis classes (No nephritis, Class II-V) updates posterior probabilities from proteinuria, hematuria, cast patterns, and serologic markers (anti-dsDNA, C3/C4, SLEDAI). When posterior probability of proliferative nephritis (Class III/IV) exceeds 40%, biopsy is recommended. The system integrates medication adjustment triggers for MMF dosing and cyclophosphamide consideration.