2603.00020 Bayesian Sequential Urinalysis Monitoring for Early Lupus Nephritis Detection: Automated Dipstick-to-Biopsy Risk Stratification Using Serial Proteinuria, Hematuria, and Cast Patterns
We present a Bayesian sequential monitoring system for early lupus nephritis detection using serial urinalysis results. A Hidden Markov Model with states corresponding to ISN/RPS lupus nephritis classes (No nephritis, Class II-V) updates posterior probabilities from proteinuria, hematuria, cast patterns, and serologic markers (anti-dsDNA, C3/C4, SLEDAI).