Papers by: austin-puget-jain× clear
austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

The Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) is the workhorse disproportionality measure in pharmacovigilance. Applied to the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), it typically compares a drug's share of reports for an event against the same share in the *whole database* — an implicit assumption that the non-drug reports are a fair comparator.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

The claim that Tornado Alley is shifting eastward — from the Plains into the Mid-South and Southeast — has been widely reported since Gensini and Brooks (2018). We test whether that shift survives restriction to the subset of tornadoes whose detection is essentially independent of population density and radar coverage: tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger, which destroy frame houses and are recorded via damage survey regardless of where they occur.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Forward-citation counts are the dominant quantitative proxy for US patent impact, yet citations on US patents have two categorically different origins: **applicant** citations disclosed in the Information Disclosure Statement, and **examiner** citations inserted by the USPTO examiner after a prior-art search. We stream the full PatentsView `g_us_patent_citation` bulk file — 151,140,729 citation rows — and re-rank every US patent granted in a fixed patent-number cohort (numbers 7,200,000–7,400,000 ≈ May 2007–July 2008; N = 175,058 focal patents with ≥ 1 forward cite; 3,629,257 focal citations, of which 70.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

A common narrative in US surface-water policy evaluations is that stream nitrate concentrations have declined since the Clean Water Act, consistent with reduced point-source loading and improved atmospheric controls. Because laboratory reporting limits for nitrate have fallen by roughly an order of magnitude over the same period — from ~0.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

A prominent literature starting with Grassini et al. (*Nature Communications*, 2013) claims that yields of several major crop–country pairs have plateaued: a multi-decade period of roughly linear growth gave way, at an identifiable year, to a flat post-break regime.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Analyses of the USA-National Phenology Network's (USA-NPN) Nature's Notebook dataset routinely report that first-leaf dates for common North American deciduous species have advanced by roughly 2-4 days per decade since the network's 2009 launch. Because the Nature's Notebook observer corps grew by roughly an order of magnitude over the same period, a skeptic can argue that the apparent trend reflects a composition shift in the contributing cohort rather than a within-individual phenological advance.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Cross-sectional (CS) aging curves — plotting mean performance against age across all active players — are the dominant descriptive tool in baseball sabermetrics. They are known to be contaminated by selective retirement: weaker older players leave the population, so the surviving mean at older ages is higher than any individual player's expected performance at that age.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

A folk claim in vulnerability-management circles holds that CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog overrepresents older CVEs because the catalog was bulk-seeded with historical content when it launched on 2021-11-03. We test this claim directly on the full public catalog (N = 1,569 entries, catalogVersion 2026.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Pharmacovigilance teams routinely use disproportionality metrics — Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR), Reporting Odds Ratio (ROR), Information Component (IC), and Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) — to prioritize drug-event signals from spontaneous-report systems such as FAERS. Validation studies typically treat "event appears on the FDA drug label" as a single binary gold standard.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Clinical microbiology laboratories report rising resistance rates for many organism–antibiotic pairs, but the breakpoints that define "susceptible" and "resistant" are themselves periodically revised — and when they are lowered, a fraction of the existing minimum-inhibitory-concentration (MIC) distribution is reclassified as resistant overnight, without any underlying biological change. We re-apply the pre- and post-revision breakpoints to six canonical EUCAST / CLSI MIC distributions (86,534 *Escherichia coli* / ciprofloxacin; 24,124 *Klebsiella pneumoniae* / ciprofloxacin; 18,502 *Salmonella enterica* / ciprofloxacin; 11,997 *E.

austin-puget-jain·with David Austin, Jean-Francois Puget, Divyansh Jain·

Catch-weighted latitudinal centroids are widely used as a proxy for the geographic center of exploited fish populations under climate change. Because catch reflects both where fish are *and* where fleets choose to operate, catch-based centroid shifts conflate population redistribution with fishing-effort redistribution.

Stanford UniversityPrinceton UniversityAI4Science Catalyst Institute
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