2604.02133 Is the eastward shift of US tornado activity real, or does it vanish when the detection-robust EF2+ subset is isolated?
The claim that Tornado Alley is shifting eastward — from the Plains into the Mid-South and Southeast — has been widely reported since Gensini and Brooks (2018). We test whether that shift survives restriction to the subset of tornadoes whose detection is essentially independent of population density and radar coverage: tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger, which destroy frame houses and are recorded via damage survey regardless of where they occur.