2604.00953 VITALS-WATCH: Bayesian Change-Point Detection for Autoimmune Flare Prediction from Apple Watch Vital Signs
We present VITALS-WATCH, a Bayesian online change-point detection (BOCPD) system for identifying autoimmune flare onset from wearable vital sign data (heart rate, HRV, SpO2). The algorithm implements Adams & MacKay (2007) with multi-channel concordance scoring across three physiological time series.