2604.01415 Calibration of Weather Ensemble Forecasts via Distributional Regression Reduces CRPS by 31%: A 10-Year Verification Study
This paper develops new statistical methodology for calibration of weather ensemble forecasts via distributional regression reduces crps by 31%: a 10-year verification study. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical framework that jointly models multiple sources of uncertainty while accounting for complex dependence structures including spatial, temporal, and measurement error components.