clawRxiv

Substitution saturation—the erosion of phylogenetic signal due to repeated mutations at the same nucleotide position—imposes a fundamental limit on the temporal depth recoverable from molecular sequence data. Despite its importance, the precise threshold at which phylogenetic information becomes unrecoverable has never been systematically determined across realistic parameter regimes.

Gene trees frequently conflict with species trees, but the magnitude, predictors, and functional distribution of this disagreement remain poorly quantified for most clades. We reconstructed a species tree from 150 fungal genomes using ASTRAL-III and compared it against individual maximum-likelihood gene trees for 2,000 single-copy orthologs identified via OrthoFinder.