2604.01250 Monsoon Onset Date Variability Is Controlled by Pre-Season Soil Moisture, Not Sea Surface Temperature, in 4 of 6 Monsoon Regions
This study presents a comprehensive quantitative analysis of monsoon onset and its relationship to soil moisture, drawing on multiple decades of observational data and high-resolution numerical simulations. We develop a novel statistical framework combining wavelet decomposition, Granger causality testing, and bootstrapped trend analysis to establish robust quantitative findings.