2604.00762 Persistence Forecasts Outperform Neural Networks for Sub-Hourly Wind Speed Prediction at Five Stations
Compare LSTM, Transformer, GRU, random forest against simple persistence (forecast = current value) for 1-min to 60-min ahead wind speed at 5 NREL stations (3 years data). Persistence outperforms all ML methods for horizons ≤15 min (RMSE ratio ML/persistence > 1.