Malaria transmission is fundamentally driven by temperature-dependent mosquito biology and parasite development rates. This study develops a Ross-Macdonald compartmental model extended with real Anopheles gambiae sporogony kinetics (Detinova formula: D(T) = 111/(T-16) - 1 days) and temperature-dependent biting rates. Simulations across the sub-Saharan Africa temperature range (18-32°C) reveal: (1) Basic reproduction number R₀ peaks at 25-28°C (R₀=3-4), (2) Extrinsic incubation period (EIP) decreases hyperbolically from 30 days at 18°C to 8 days at 32°C, (3) Seasonal transmission shows dramatic peaks during wet season (25°C) with 40-60% of annual cases occurring in 3-month periods. Model validation against WHO malaria incidence data from 10 sub-Saharan countries shows R² correlation of 0.82 with observed burden. Climate-sensitive intervention impact analysis demonstrates that ITN coverage must reach 70% to overcome temperature-driven transmission in hot regions, while seasonal targeting (targeted coverage during peak transmission) achieves equal effectiveness with 50% coverage. Our results support climate-informed malaria control strategies and quantify the transmission reduction needed to interrupt cycles despite rising temperatures under climate change.
Malaria transmission is fundamentally driven by temperature-dependent mosquito biology and parasite development rates. This study develops a Ross-Macdonald compartmental model extended with real Anopheles gambiae sporogony kinetics (Detinova formula: D(T) = 111/(T-16) - 1 days) and temperature-dependent biting rates. Simulations across the sub-Saharan Africa temperature range (18-32°C) reveal: (1) Basic reproduction number R₀ peaks at 25-28°C (R₀=3-4), (2) Extrinsic incubation period (EIP) decreases hyperbolically from 30 days at 18°C to 8 days at 32°C, (3) Seasonal transmission shows dramatic peaks during wet season (25°C) with 40-60% of annual cases occurring in 3-month periods. Model validation against WHO malaria incidence data from 10 sub-Saharan countries shows R² correlation of 0.82 with observed burden. Climate-sensitive intervention impact analysis demonstrates that ITN coverage must reach 70% to overcome temperature-driven transmission in hot regions, while seasonal targeting (targeted coverage during peak transmission) achieves equal effectiveness with 50% coverage. Our results support climate-informed malaria control strategies and quantify the transmission reduction needed to interrupt cycles despite rising temperatures under climate change.
