We specify a pre-registered protocol for Under a pre-specified accounting method that subtracts EIP-1559 base-fee burn from consensus-layer issuance per week, what fraction of 2024 calendar weeks on the Ethereum mainnet showed net-negative issuance? using Etherscan daily summary data (public); Ultrasound.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for For a pre-specified panel of large US employers that announced explicit return-to-office mandates, did voluntary turnover (as measured by LinkedIn Economic Graph-based tenure-end indicators) rise in the 6-month post-announcement window relative to a 12-month pre-announcement baseline, controlling for sector trends? using LinkedIn Economic Graph (public research partnership releases), Revelio Labs public workforce data summaries, press announcements catalogued in a released CSV; BLS JOLTS public series for sector baselines.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Do eight recent AI-finance return claims (using neural-network or tree-ensemble predictors of cross-sectional equity returns) survive on a time-slice strictly after their paper's reported training and test ranges? using CRSP Monthly; Compustat fundamentals via WRDS; sample slice is 2024Q1 onward (strictly post publication for all eight papers).
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Do four 2025-era preprints reconstructing the FX carry trade report annualised returns that reproduce within their stated CIs when all are implemented on the same G10 FX universe over the same sample? using Bloomberg/Refinitiv spot and 1-month forward rates for G10 (alternatively the BIS public monthly effective exchange rate data for a sanity comparison); US Treasury rates from FRED.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Do three published momentum-factor reconstructions (Jegadeesh-Titman 1993, Carhart 1997, Fama-French momentum factor UMD as distributed on French's data library) produce Sharpe ratios whose 95% CIs overlap when independently implemented on an identical CRSP universe and frozen sample period? using CRSP Monthly Stock File via WRDS (or the public 'Kenneth French Data Library' momentum series as a cross-check).
We specify a pre-registered protocol for On the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme green-tilt announcement date, did 2-year asset-swap spreads for CSPP-eligible green-aligned issuers move significantly more than those for matched non-tilt-eligible issuers over the two-day window? using ECB CSPP eligibility list (public weekly update by ECB); EuroStoxx corporate bond indices; Refinitiv/Bloomberg for asset-swap spread calculations; ECB press-release timestamps are public.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for In the JGB 10-year futures market, is cumulative absolute log-return in the first 9 minutes after each BoJ yield-curve-control band-widening announcement a significantly larger share of the total 60-minute post-announcement absolute move than the same share on matched non-announcement days? using Osaka Exchange JGB futures intraday prints (available through TSE/OSE historical data, also mirrored on Bloomberg and Refinitiv); BoJ press release timestamps are public on BoJ website.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Using a pre-specified stress index, did the ratio of discount-window usage to stress-index value increase after the March 2023 regional-bank episode, relative to the 2015-2022 baseline? using FRED: H.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for After SEC Rule 606(a) disclosure standardisation, did cross-broker dispersion in measured price improvement per 100-share marketable order decline, relative to the pre-standardisation baseline? using SEC Rule 606 quarterly reports (public filings on broker websites); NMS FINRA OATS (where public); SIFMA retail flow estimates.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for For US listed stocks with average daily volume above $1B, has opening-auction price-impact (measured as the absolute log-return from opening auction clearing price to the VWAP of the subsequent 15 minutes) declined over the period 2020-2025? using NYSE/Nasdaq opening auction prints (public TAQ); CRSP for ADV classification; VWAP computed from trade-level TAQ.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Did the NYSE/Nasdaq change in MOC imbalance disclosure timing reduce measured temporary price impact at the close on Russell-2000 rebalance days, relative to non-rebalance days? using NYSE Imbalance Feed (subscription) OR the public end-of-day closing auction prints from NYSE/Nasdaq TAQ; Russell rebalance list (public annual release from FTSE Russell); CRSP for market caps.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for For mid-cap stocks that were in Test Group 1/2/3 of the SEC Tick Size Pilot, did the spread differentials observed during the program partially persist in the 18 months following the program's termination, relative to control stocks? using SEC Tick Size Pilot data files (public release on SEC website); NYSE Daily TAQ; CRSP for mid-cap classification; pilot enrollment list is publicly archived.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Did the introduction of the IEX-style speed bump on a mid-size US exchange reduce the rate of detectable latency-arbitrage round-trip patterns relative to matched control venues, in the 60 trading days surrounding the activation date? using NYSE Daily TAQ quote-level (WRDS); SEC Rule 605/606 public disclosures; MIAX/IEX historical press releases documenting activation dates.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Did the discrete maker-taker fee inversion events documented on NYSE Arca produce a statistically significant change in intraday small-lot quoted-spread variance for affected symbols, relative to a matched control set on a non-Arca venue? using NYSE Daily TAQ (accessible through WRDS subscription; alternatively, IEX DEEP feed, public; Cboe Global Market Statistics public daily summaries).
We specify a pre-registered protocol for When system-prompt layers contain direct contradictions (e.g.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for When a benign tool returns a result containing an adversarial instruction, how often do four public 2025-era agent frameworks (configured out-of-the-box) obey the injected instruction versus ignore it? using AgentDojo benchmark (Debenedetti et al.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Given a frozen set of PDDL domains and a frozen model revision, do three public planner-LLM implementations (LLM+P-style translation, chain-of-thought direct planning, and ReAct-with-validator) produce reported success rates within their own published confidence intervals on the same problem set? using IPC-2023 classical planning domains (public), Blocksworld and Logistics from the PDDL-generators repository, and the PlanBench problem set (Valmeekam et al.
We specify a pre-registered protocol for Do three commonly cited LLM-as-judge protocols (pairwise with position-swap, single-answer grading with rubric, and reference-anchored scoring) produce statistically different Elo/Bradley-Terry rankings when applied to the same fixed pool of open-weights models and the same prompt set? using MT-Bench prompts (Zheng et al.