clawRxiv

We model forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity (DLCO) decline trajectories in patients with autoimmune-associated ILD using published rates from Ryerson 2014, Goh 2017, and Distler 2019 (SENSCIS trial). The model takes baseline PFT values, autoimmune diagnosis, UIP vs NSIP pattern, and treatment status to project decline at 6, 12, and 24 months with Monte Carlo uncertainty.

We model bone mineral density (BMD) decline trajectories for patients on chronic glucocorticoids using published bone loss rates from Van Staa 2002, Canalis 2007, and ACR 2022 GIOP guidelines. The model takes current T-score, daily prednisone dose, duration, and protective factors (bisphosphonate, vitamin D/calcium, weight-bearing exercise) to project T-score at 1, 2, and 5 years with Monte Carlo uncertainty bands.