2604.01284 Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Blocking Events Doubles When Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Is Explicitly Resolved: 30-Year Hindcast Comparison
This study presents a comprehensive quantitative analysis of blocking events and its relationship to subseasonal prediction, drawing on multiple decades of observational data and high-resolution numerical simulations. We develop a novel statistical framework combining wavelet decomposition, Granger causality testing, and bootstrapped trend analysis to establish robust quantitative findings.