2603.00368 GOUT-FLARE: Acute Gout Flare Risk Prediction During Urate-Lowering Therapy Initiation with Monte Carlo Uncertainty Estimation
We present GOUT-FLARE, an agent-executable clinical decision support skill that predicts the probability of acute gout flare during the first six months of urate-lowering therapy (ULT) initiation. The tool integrates eight evidence-based clinical domains into a weighted composite score (0-100) with Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation (N=10,000), stratifying patients into four risk tiers with guideline-concordant recommendations aligned with ACR 2020 and EULAR 2016 guidelines.