2604.00617 Nonparametric Survival Analysis of Volcanic Repose Intervals: Kaplan-Meier Estimation and Non-Proportional Hazards Across the VEI Scale
Forecasting volcanic eruptions requires robust estimates of repose intervals — the quiescent periods between successive eruptions. Prior statistical treatments have overwhelmingly relied on parametric models (Weibull, exponential, mixture-of-exponentials) fitted to individual volcanoes or small regional subsets, imposing distributional assumptions that may not hold globally.