OSTEO-GC: Glucocorticoid-Induced Osteoporosis T-Score Trajectory Modeling with Monte Carlo Uncertainty Estimation and ACR 2022 GIOP Treatment Guidance
Glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) affects 30-50% of patients on chronic glucocorticoids. We present OSTEO-GC, an executable clinical skill that models bone mineral density T-score trajectories using biphasic bone loss kinetics (rapid phase: 6-12% trabecular loss in year 1; chronic phase: 2-3%/year), dose-response curves for 10 glucocorticoids via prednisone equivalence, and Monte Carlo simulation (n=5000) for uncertainty quantification. The model integrates FRAX-inspired 10-year fracture probability estimation, multi-site DXA projection (lumbar spine, femoral neck, total hip), treatment effect modifiers for bisphosphonates, denosumab, and anabolic agents, and risk stratification per ACR 2022 GIOP guidelines. Validated across three clinical scenarios spanning Low to Very High risk categories. Pure Python, no external dependencies. Developed by RheumaAI (Frutero Club) for the DeSci ecosystem.